Tunisia's Economic Outlook Remains Challenging, Despite Minor Improvements
According to the "Tunisia Country Risk Report" published by BMI, a subsidiary of Fitch Solutions, the economic situation is not encouraging, despite some minor improvements.
External Financing Constraints and Currency Depreciation
Due to external financing constraints, leading to a reduction in foreign exchange reserves, a depreciation of around 5.7% of the dinar is expected in 2024.
Import Compression and Inflation
The compression of imports will lead to shortages of goods in the domestic market, causing inflation to rise from 8.0% in December 2023 to 8.7% in December 2024. To contain inflation, the report predicts that the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) will increase its benchmark rate by 100 basis points in 2024.
Real GDP Growth and Consumption
Mainly due to a slight improvement in household consumption, contained growth of imports, and reduced pressure on government liquidity, Tunisia's real GDP growth will improve slightly from 0.5% in 2023 to 1.3% in 2024.
Current Account Deficit and Good News for Foreign Investors
Despite these challenges, there is some good news, particularly for foreign investors and international businesses. The country's current account deficit is expected to decrease to a historically low level of 2.0% of GDP in 2024.
