Tunisian Economy to Experience Gradual Growth, According to EBRD Report
The Tunisian economy is expected to experience gradual growth, increasing from 1.2% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, and then to 2.2% in 2026, driven by an improvement in exports, a rise in tourism, and increased budgetary rigor. The public deficit is expected to be contained at 6.3% of GDP in 2025, thanks to optimized revenue and reduced public aid. An adjustment plan aims to reduce this imbalance to 5.5% of GDP, with a control of the wage bill at 13.3% of GDP.
The debt, although high (82.2% of GDP), is expected to decrease to 80.5% in 2025, with the external component now representing half of the total, compared to 70% in 2019.
The report highlights an improvement in the current account balance, with a deficit reduced to 1.6% of GDP over the first eleven months of 2024, compared to 2.3% a year earlier. This dynamic is explained by a decrease in imports linked to the decline in commodity prices and an increase in foreign sales, particularly in the mechanical, electrical, and olive oil sectors. Foreign exchange reserves remain at $25 billion, covering 3.7 months of imports. The average inflation rate stands at 7.1% over the period, down from 9.5% in 2023, while the unemployment rate reaches 16% in the second quarter of 2024.
For the Mediterranean region, the EBRD anticipates growth of 3.7% in 2025, after 2.5% in 2024, with a continued recovery despite persistent challenges. Geopolitical tensions, climate risks, and uncertainties over international aid constitute major risks. In Lebanon, the consequences of the Israeli-Lebanese conflict continue to weigh on economic activity, illustrating the fragility of prospects despite a slight improvement expected in 2026 (4.1%). The EBRD stresses the need for stable tariff policies and prudent management of external shocks to consolidate these forecasts.
