Climate Stress and Potential Crop Abandonment in the Gharb Region
Morocco’s avocado industry is heading into the 2026/2027 season amid mounting uncertainty. Across several districts in the Gharb region, producers are now seriously considering abandoning avocado cultivation following a series of extreme weather events that have severely impacted yields.
The alert was issued by Abdelkrim Allaoui, president of the Gharb Avocado Producers Association, as reported by FreshPlaza on August 10, 2026. In the areas of Tiflet, Sidi Allal Bahraoui, and Sidi Yahya El Gharb, some farmers are contemplating uprooting their avocado trees. In certain cases, the June heatwave resulted in total crop loss.
Heatwaves, Flower Drop, and the Threat of the Chergui Wind
The current season was already weakened by late June. A natural period of flower shedding coincided with a heatwave that kept temperatures above 36°C (97°F) for five consecutive days. According to Allaoui, this combination triggered a significantly higher drop of flowers and young fruits than usual.
The threat remains ongoing: growers are bracing for another heatwave before the end of August, alongside the potential arrival of the Chergui—a hot, dry wind that could further exacerbate water stress on the trees.
Harvest Outlook and Historical Context
However, precise damage assessments will have to wait until September. At this stage, industry professionals agree it is still too early to finalize the harvest outlook.
This latest alert follows a particularly challenging 2025/2026 season. Morocco exported only 58,000 metric tons of avocados, down from approximately 112,000 metric tons the previous year—a sharp decline of over 48%. The drop is largely attributed to adverse weather conditions and logistical bottlenecks during the season.
The contrast is stark: during the 2024/2025 campaign, Moroccan avocado exports hit a record 112,000 metric tons, generating over $300 million in revenue. At the time, avocados accounted for more than 10% of the foreign exchange earnings from Morocco’s fruit and berry exports, according to EastFruit. With climate volatility intensifying, the sector’s ability to recover and stabilize supply chains will be closely watched in the coming months.
