Climate Risk Index 2026: A Stark Reality
When Germanwatch published its Climate Risk Index 2026 on November 11, 2025, the tone was set from the very first lines: in thirty years, the planet has endured over 9,700 extreme weather events, resulting in 832,000 deaths and more than $4.5 trillion in economic losses. The report, built from the EM-DAT database and data from the World Bank and IMF, analyzes 174 countries to reveal an unfiltered face of climate disruption.
Focus on Climate-Related Phenomena
Unlike what one might imagine, the document does not include sea-level rise or ocean acidification and ignores geological disasters like earthquakes. It focuses solely on phenomena directly related to climate: heatwaves, storms, droughts, fires, and floods. This choice makes the exercise even more brutal: it captures what the climate, and only the climate, causes on human territories.
The 5 Most Affected African Countries (1995-2024)
At the top of the continent, Libya still bears the scars of Cyclone Daniel, which devastated the country in 2023. This single event caused 13,200 deaths, affected 1.6 million people, and generated $6 billion in damages. This tragedy alone places the country in 4th position globally among the most affected. Behind Libya, Mozambique ranks 23rd globally. Hit successively by Cyclones Idai and Kenneth, and then by recurring floods, the country has never really had time to breathe. Malawi ranks just after, in 25th position, also a victim of repeated extreme events, exacerbated by soils and agricultural systems sensitive to climate hazards. Zimbabwe (34th) and Kenya (39th) complete this top 5 African list, confirming that climate exposure is not limited to coastal or tropical areas: vulnerability also affects states with low institutional resilience.
Focus on Tunisia and the MENA Region
Tunisia appears in 40th position among the most affected African countries in the Germanwatch ranking. The MENA region, however, is among the most threatened areas in the world. The effects are already manifesting in a concrete, almost palpable way. In Tunisia, the first alert is not a storm but water. The country lives under extreme water stress. The FAO recalls that renewable resources are so limited that their exploitation exceeds sustainable thresholds, particularly for agriculture. Tunisian climate projections are not reassuring. According to national documents, the average annual temperature could rise by 1.6°C to 1.9°C by 2050, increasing the number of heatwave days and accelerating drought. Oases, like those in Chenini, resist the scarcity of water and the decline of biodiversity as best they can. More broadly, the MENA region is considered a "global climate hotspot": water scarcity, accelerated desertification, and extreme heatwaves. Studies by Ecomena and scientific research confirm that warming is progressing faster there than the global average.
